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Monday, March 25, 2019

Video Games as Social Networks, and How EA Misses the Point

The market has been treating Electronic Arts (EA) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) stocks rather harshly. A big part of it is the emergence of Fortnite, a free-to-play (F2P) battle royale game that’s taken the world by storm, and helped its creator generate $3bn in profit.

Investors who are long EA are counting on its new battle royale game, Apex Legends, to fend off this competitive threat.

Unfortunately, this type of thinking misses the point.

Fortnite is not about battle royale, nor is it about F2P. The disruptive part of Fortnite is turning traditional shoot-them-up games into a lively social experience, while broadening the audience beyond hardcore gamers.

All aspects of Fortnite’s designs, from graphics to game play to monetization model, fit together tightly to create that social experience.

Apex Legends on the other hand, merely copies Fortnite’s revenue model (free to play) and game mode (battle royale), without matching it to relevant product features.


Fortnite is more than a Battle Royale!

You don’t have to look very far to see that Fortnite is much more than a video game. It’s a social phenomenon:


Why people play video games

Let’s take a step back and think about why people play video games. Common reasons include:
  • Fill time
  • For entertainment – this could be adrenaline rush or going through a story like in role playing games
  • Get a sense of achievement - whether it’s solving puzzles or beating a stage boss
  • Social needs – so they can interact with friends, or make friends through the game

The early generations of video games, say Super Mario, focuses more on the first three. There is a social component (kids talk about it in school or invite friends over to play), but in in general, game improvements are based on better graphics and fancier game play mechanics.

Then the internet came along, and we have multi-player online games such as Warcraft or Counterstrike, and all the sudden these games have more of a social component. Now you have to pick your teammates, strategize game plans, coordinate a time with your friends to storm some fortress. No one wants to let their team down, and the games are sticker because of that.

This is network effect in action. More players in the game means it’s more likely that my friends play, and the more my friends play, the more likely I’m going to play.

But a social network goes beyond simple interactions. In true social circles, people want ways to express their individualities, as well as build social status. Social circles also offer unique shared experiences that binds people together.


Fortnite as social network

This brings us to Fortnite. It has multiple elements of a social network - not just team play, but status signaling and shared experiences:

  • Peer interactions 
    • Play because your friends play - can’t let your teammates down!
    • Or you can play with random strangers
  • Shared experiences that people can talk about
  • But also ways to provide and signal social status 
    • Game dominance = Bragging rights
    • Your avatar can have its own unique attire (“skins”), including limited edition ones.
    • Emotes/dances – these are great ways to express your individuality and sense of humour. Because earning these requires in-game achievements, they are bragging rights as well.

How Fortnite’s game features and monetization model both fit with this social function

Just saying “we want to build a social experience” won’t make it happen. Successful satisfaction of customer needs requires a suitable integration of product features and monetization schemes. And this is where Fortnite really shines. 

F2P totally makes sense given Fortnite’s “video game as social network” feel. To build a social network you want to minimize access barrier and maximize number of players. What’s more accessible than free?

To reinforce that accessibility, Fortnite’s cartoonish graphics broaden the audience to include kids and females. The game’s building mechanics also broaden the player base beyond just shooter fans. It drew in a class of gamers who likes solving puzzles.

In terms of monetization, Fortnite chose to monetize by selling skins/emotes/dances. These have no bearings on your competitiveness in the game itself, but are ways to express individuality and bragging rights.

Again, game features are fully consistent with monetization. The cartoonish graphics are aligned with silly dances, while 3rd person perspective (camera behind your character) means you can see the fancy clothes that you bought.


Now compare that to Apex Legends

Apex has copied two elements of Fortnite, the battle royale, and the F2P. But it fails to optimize game features to monetization while creating a social experience. As a result, this is just another game.

This article has a good comparison of Fortnite versus Apex Legend. Pay attention to various elements of the game (graphics, game play, perspective), and its implication.

  • Perspective. Apex is also F2P and try to monetize by selling skins. But this is a first person shooter, so you only see the gun. This isn’t much incentive to dress up your avatars!
  • Game play. Apex is more of a shooter, it doesn’t have the building mechanics, so gun skill is king. This limits access to a more niche group of players, and creates less of a diverse community.
  • Graphics: Apex has more realistic renderings. While this is “better” graphics, it clearly caters to more of a mature audience, and will not work as well with humorous dances. This limits monetization through emotes.
  • In-game events. So far I’m not aware of any.
Apex just put out its first Battle Pass (monetization). Not surprisingly, the feedbacks are disappointing across the board.


Conclusion

A disruptive business model has hit the video game industry, and it’s not about battle royale.

In Fortnite, Epic has found a way to do F2P to the tune of $3bn profit a year. That formula is to embrace the social network elements of a video game, complete with rare in-game events to encourage buzz, and with monetization tied to personal expressions.

Incumbents like ATVI and EA have to respond, but EA’s response via Apex Legends makes me wonder if they even “get it”. They seem stuck in the “let’s make the best shooter game we can and give it awesome graphics” mindset.

They better get it soon. Because Fortnite is here to stay.

Saturday, March 9, 2019

What About Those Recessions? (From STOR's 4Q18 Call)

I bought STORE Capital back in mid-2017, right after news came out that Berkshire/Ted Weschler bought it. I remember reading the news at 10pm that night and got so excited that I jumped out of bed, stayed up all night researching, just in time to put in a buy order the next morning.

Since then STOR has provided good returns. More than that, I learned quite a bit about the real estate business by following a good management team.

The 4Q18 earning call was educational. You know one of these moments of mental clarity, when some one says something that (you thought) you knew all along, yet a light bulb just goes off in your head? It's one of those.

I had been thinking about cycles quite a bit, and STOR's CEO Chris Volk says this:


"So the first thing I would talk about is cycle, the notion of cycle, and this gets - a lot of analysts focus on the expansion cycle that this economy has been in for a long period of time and...somehow we must be getting near the end of the cycle..."
"...I think that this economy can grow at 2% to 3% at a margin, but inside of that 2%, 3% there's plenty of recession activity that's happening."
"...So if you were working for Sears Roebuck you might have thought you were in a recession, if you are working for Radio Shack you would have thought there was a recession.
Payless shoes I mean any one of the 9,000 retailers price closed toward and you would have felt pretty bad, right. A fewer in the oil industry, as oil prices plummeted in the Dakotas and elsewhere. And you are located in one of those states, you were thought there was a recession. 
So inside of that 2% to 3% growth there is a lot of kind of creative destruction that's happening that's buried in that."

Duh! Of course!

Instead of waiting/worrying about a big recession all the time, we're better off recognizing that mini "recessions" by sectors have always been with us. Its called creative destruction.

Sometimes real insight is simple and elegant, and right in front of you.

I'm not sure I can add much more without sounding banal. So I'll stop here.