General Update
It's been a while since my last post. What's there to write in a world where every stock chart is up and to the right?
The past few months have been less about single stock fundamentals, but more just managing portfolio exposure. I try hard to keep my net exposure below 60% (now down to 50-55%) as numbers fly upwards - trim here and there, add a little index hedges...etc. Just trying to keep my risk down. That's a good problem to have!
My genomic basket (slightly under 20% of my portfolio) went absolutely bonkers. This is ILMN/EXAS/GH/NTRA and a rotating cast of more speculative plays. I got into PACB and BNGO relatively early, both multi-baggers. I had small positions in these, and gradually sold on the way up. So these are base hits instead of home runs. But add up a bunch of base hits and all the sudden I'm up 15-20% YTD in my main accounts.
The other thing is - it's easy to find ideas when 8x sales is now considered cheap. Of course, no one knows how long the market will stay crazy, so I have a portfolio of speculative stocks and blow them out at the first sign of market weakness. Then when the market look stable again I get back in.
A Couple Interesting Ideas
Here are a couple of these speculative ideas in Tweet threads. For now they are in my rotating basket but I may end up with them as long term investments.
These are early stage companies and the industries are still being defined. So I'm focused on how these companies can build their moat and enhance their positions in the value chain.
If I sound somewhat negative about them, that is because they are promising enough to worry about.
1) SSPK (Weedmaps)
1/n
— mspacey (@mspacey4415) January 10, 2021
Some takeaways from my DD on Weedmaps $SSPK
- the purchase process was far from smooth
- Weedmaps is like Yelp on consumer side and Square on seller side, but the 2 sides are not necessarily integrated- Consumer experience suffers as a result https://t.co/d6rq8VUIsh
I want to see Weedmaps integrate further into the customer's value chain - especially in terms of payments and logistics. That would help enhance the customer experience as well as erect further barriers to entry. Regulations need to be loosened up (which is likely in this political environment) and give marijuana related companies access to the banking system.
Weedmaps currently does not take any cut of their GMV, and that represents a big upside if regulation allows.
2) TSIA (Latch)
1. waiting for more disclosure from $TSIA / Latch but I like this one so far . one of the more promising SPAC targets IMO
— mspacey (@mspacey4415) January 26, 2021
Latch has a chance to not just be a management platform for building owners, but also a consumer platform for every day use. I want to see them extend functionalities to make renter's life more easier and more convenient. This way LatchOS can be central to residents' lives and perhaps a platform to connect with other services (laundry, elevator, vending machines...etc).
New companies typically some with some niche focus. A small competitive border is easier to defend and dominate than a wide border. This is what LatchOS has done with multi-family apartment buildings. But they are talking about extending that to commercial buildings. I worry that resources might be stretched a little thin here.
